Japan Just Called A Snap Election
IWAKUNI, Japan — With his once-vaunted plan for reviving Japan’s economy now faltering, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe declared on Tuesday that he would dissolve Parliament and hold national elections next month, saying he wants a new mandate from voters.
In a broadcast on live national television, Mr. Abe explained the move by saying he wanted to ask voters to approve his decision to postpone a scheduled increase in the national sales tax, which he warned could further hurt growth. But he also framed it as a broader referendum on his economic measures, known as Abenomics.
“There are divided opinions about the economic policies that we are pursuing. There is also resistance,” Mr. Abe said. “To continue advancing that growth strategy with the support of the people, we need to listen to the voice of people.”
A shopper in Tokyo. Japan unexpectedly fell into recession in the third quarter, hampered by rising sales taxes that have discouraged consumers from spending.As Japan Falls Into Recession, Europe Looks to Avoid ItNOV. 17, 2014
Political analysts said the decision to call an election was an admission by Mr. Abe that his widely watched economic program, intended to pull Japan out of its two-decade slump, was losing steam. That program, a mix of increased government spending and an aggressive pumping of cash into the economy by the central bank, lifted the stock market and won praise as a potential model for other developed economies. In Washington last year, Mr. Abe proudly proclaimed that Japan was back on solid footing.
Now it appears he may have spoken too soon. Economists say growth in the Japanese economy, the world’s third-largest, after the United States and China, has faltered because of a failure to follow up with painful changes and because of the ill-timed increase in the national sales tax. The final blow came on Monday, when official figures showed that Japan had fallen into recession in the third quarter.
Those figures, and growing criticism from opposition parties saying that his policies were failing, prompted him to call an election, Mr. Abe said.
“There is criticism that Abenomics is a failure,” Mr. Abe said. “So what should we do? Unfortunately, I have yet to hear one concrete idea.”
Calling elections could also be a bid to renew support for a government that has suffered from a growing number of financing and other scandals. While he has been able to overcome major political damage so far, the problems are similar to those that Mr. Abe faced during his first term as prime minister. Seven years ago, those scandals eventually toppled his government.
Analysts said a prolonged economic slowdown could spell the end of the so-called Abe phenomenon, in which the prime minister enjoyed high approval ratings and appeared destined to stay in office for several years, a rarity in a nation with a long series of leaders with short political life spans. They said the basis of his popularity was his success in lifting some of Japan’s economic gloom and in restoring confidence.
“The size of the economy’s decline was a big shock to Abe and the Liberal Democratic Party,” said Katsuyuki Yakushiji, a professor of politics at Toyo University in Tokyo. “It makes Abenomics look like a failure. Abe suddenly looks desperate to stay in power.”
Analysts also said the recent signs that Abenomics was fizzling could hamper, or even block, Mr. Abe’s attempts to implement less popular parts of his agenda, such as expanding the role of Japan’s military, or restarting its shuttered nuclear industry.
Perhaps most important, Mr. Abe is seeking a mandate on an issue close to voters’ pocketbooks: whether to postpone a second scheduled increase of the national sales tax, which by law is to take place next year.
On Tuesday, Mr. Abe said he wanted to submit the issue to voters because it would amount to a reversal of a position by his Liberal Democratic Party, which supported the tax increase bill when it passed two years ago. Such a delay would undoubtedly prove popular among voters, especially after the first increase of the sales tax this year was widely blamed for contributing to the current recession.
Mr Abe was elected two years ago with an ambitious plan to revive the economy, but has struggled to do so.
His popularity has fallen but he is expected to win the election, which will take place in mid-December.
"I will dissolve the lower house on 21 [November]," Mr Abe said.
Mr Abe's party, the Liberal Democrats, already have a majority in the lower house, but analysts said Mr Abe hoped to consolidate power over an opposition party which is in disarray.
He also wants public support to continue to press ahead with "Abenomics", his ambitious plan to kick-start Japan's stagnant economic growth using heavy government spending and economic reforms.
"I need to hear the voice of the people," Mr Abe said. "I will step down if we fail to keep our majority because that would mean our Abenomics is rejected."
One of his senior advisers told the BBC instability was the last thing voters want.
"Many people in Japan still remember how chaotic Japan's revolving door politics was, when the prime minister changed once every year," said Tomohiko Taniguchi, special adviser to the cabinet.
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| politicsalerts.blogspot.com |
In a broadcast on live national television, Mr. Abe explained the move by saying he wanted to ask voters to approve his decision to postpone a scheduled increase in the national sales tax, which he warned could further hurt growth. But he also framed it as a broader referendum on his economic measures, known as Abenomics.
“There are divided opinions about the economic policies that we are pursuing. There is also resistance,” Mr. Abe said. “To continue advancing that growth strategy with the support of the people, we need to listen to the voice of people.”
A shopper in Tokyo. Japan unexpectedly fell into recession in the third quarter, hampered by rising sales taxes that have discouraged consumers from spending.As Japan Falls Into Recession, Europe Looks to Avoid ItNOV. 17, 2014
Political analysts said the decision to call an election was an admission by Mr. Abe that his widely watched economic program, intended to pull Japan out of its two-decade slump, was losing steam. That program, a mix of increased government spending and an aggressive pumping of cash into the economy by the central bank, lifted the stock market and won praise as a potential model for other developed economies. In Washington last year, Mr. Abe proudly proclaimed that Japan was back on solid footing.
Now it appears he may have spoken too soon. Economists say growth in the Japanese economy, the world’s third-largest, after the United States and China, has faltered because of a failure to follow up with painful changes and because of the ill-timed increase in the national sales tax. The final blow came on Monday, when official figures showed that Japan had fallen into recession in the third quarter.
Those figures, and growing criticism from opposition parties saying that his policies were failing, prompted him to call an election, Mr. Abe said.
“There is criticism that Abenomics is a failure,” Mr. Abe said. “So what should we do? Unfortunately, I have yet to hear one concrete idea.”
Calling elections could also be a bid to renew support for a government that has suffered from a growing number of financing and other scandals. While he has been able to overcome major political damage so far, the problems are similar to those that Mr. Abe faced during his first term as prime minister. Seven years ago, those scandals eventually toppled his government.
Analysts said a prolonged economic slowdown could spell the end of the so-called Abe phenomenon, in which the prime minister enjoyed high approval ratings and appeared destined to stay in office for several years, a rarity in a nation with a long series of leaders with short political life spans. They said the basis of his popularity was his success in lifting some of Japan’s economic gloom and in restoring confidence.
“The size of the economy’s decline was a big shock to Abe and the Liberal Democratic Party,” said Katsuyuki Yakushiji, a professor of politics at Toyo University in Tokyo. “It makes Abenomics look like a failure. Abe suddenly looks desperate to stay in power.”
Analysts also said the recent signs that Abenomics was fizzling could hamper, or even block, Mr. Abe’s attempts to implement less popular parts of his agenda, such as expanding the role of Japan’s military, or restarting its shuttered nuclear industry.
Perhaps most important, Mr. Abe is seeking a mandate on an issue close to voters’ pocketbooks: whether to postpone a second scheduled increase of the national sales tax, which by law is to take place next year.
On Tuesday, Mr. Abe said he wanted to submit the issue to voters because it would amount to a reversal of a position by his Liberal Democratic Party, which supported the tax increase bill when it passed two years ago. Such a delay would undoubtedly prove popular among voters, especially after the first increase of the sales tax this year was widely blamed for contributing to the current recession.
Mr Abe was elected two years ago with an ambitious plan to revive the economy, but has struggled to do so.
His popularity has fallen but he is expected to win the election, which will take place in mid-December.
"I will dissolve the lower house on 21 [November]," Mr Abe said.
Mr Abe's party, the Liberal Democrats, already have a majority in the lower house, but analysts said Mr Abe hoped to consolidate power over an opposition party which is in disarray.
He also wants public support to continue to press ahead with "Abenomics", his ambitious plan to kick-start Japan's stagnant economic growth using heavy government spending and economic reforms.
"I need to hear the voice of the people," Mr Abe said. "I will step down if we fail to keep our majority because that would mean our Abenomics is rejected."
One of his senior advisers told the BBC instability was the last thing voters want.
"Many people in Japan still remember how chaotic Japan's revolving door politics was, when the prime minister changed once every year," said Tomohiko Taniguchi, special adviser to the cabinet.
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